Credit Deflation and Gold
Gold and precious metals mining shares are casualties of panic selling across all financial markets. The scenario is similar to what happened in 2008 during the global financial crisis (GFC). When the general selling exhausted itself in late 2008, gold and mining shares delivered superior absolute and relative performance for the following three years. We believe that this pattern is likely to repeat following this sell-off.
While COVID-19 outbreak is grabbing the headlines, the far bigger story is the deflation of financial assets that it has triggered and the resulting loss of investment confidence. Markets that had been priced for perfection must now reckon with a likely recession, soaring fiscal deficits and the very real possibility of a sustained bear market.
Mining company valuations appear extraordinarily cheap…. Buying low is never easy but now is the time to do it.
In our opinion, even though the economy will recover from the downturn and the health scare will prove to be temporary, financial asset valuations are unlikely to return to pre-crash manic levels. In mid-February, the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index1 traded at approximately 145% to gross domestic product (GDP),2 its second highest level since 1950, and only slightly below the 2000 peak (see Figure 1). At this writing, the ratio has fallen to 114% (as of 3/17/2020), which is still very expensive by historical standards. Valuations are driven by investor psychology, leverage and the liquidity necessary to support leverage. All three may have been critically impaired for the near to intermediate term.
Figure 1. Total U.S. Corporate Equities and U.S. GDP (1950–2020)
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| Source: AdvisorPerspectives.com. Data as of 3/3/2020. |
Gold Will Continue to Do its Job
If financial assets struggle, interest in gold is very likely to widen. Gold may have been caught up in the recent stampede for liquidity, but it has delivered good relative performance on a year-to-date basis; gold bullion is up 0.73% as of March 17, compared to -25.17% for the S&P 500 Index.3 The 12-month figures (as of 3/17/2020) are even more impressive: gold has returned 17.19% vs. -8.54% for the S&P 500.
On a peak-to-trough basis for the last few weeks, gold has declined roughly 12%. Other safe haven assets have experienced the same pressure. For example, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from less than 1.0% to 1.5% in only a few days, a drawdown of more than 30%. What this shows is that quality assets will be sold by portfolio managers desperate to reduce leverage. Low-grade assets cannot be sold quickly enough to meet margin calls.
It was leverage that inflated valuations, not fundamental economic growth and strong year-over-year earnings. In fact, corporate pre-tax profits have been declining since Q3 2014. Figure 2 shows pretax profits on a quarterly basis since 2014.
Source: John Hathaway | Sprott
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