COVID-19 reaches peak in Ontario and elsewhere in the country, with fewer people dying than feared

According to provincial health officials, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have peaked in Ontario, several weeks ahead of earlier forecasts, and hospitals have largely escaped the dreaded increase in critically ill patients.

Likewise, it is necessary to indicate that Canada could go through the worst of the pandemic in late April. While growth rates are slowing across the country. In fact, new modeling data was released Monday in Ontario, one of the worst affected provinces. Whereas previously, terrifying models predicted a spike in cases in May, shelters in place and other public health orders “have accelerated the spike thus far.”

Provincial officials stressed that it does not mean that the disease has “passed.” Without a vaccine, the pandemic virus is expected to circulate for a year or more.

Efforts that must be duplicated to stop the spread of COVID-19

Total cases for the outbreak period are now probably less than 20,000, much lower than the worst case of 300,000 or even the expected 80,000 cases linked by previous models.

However, the growth rate of hospitalizations has slowed in the province, while the number of people in the ICU has remained relatively constant over the past week. While the data released Monday does not show a real spike followed by a sharp decline, the epidemics follow what is called Farr’s Law.

According to Ontario’s grim model released earlier this month, the “best case” scenario had put the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care at around 1,200 as of Monday. According to Ontario government data, there were 247 people in intensive care on Monday morning, 193 of them with respirators.

Likewise, previous projections had also requested 1,600 deaths by April 30 and 80,000 cases. As of Monday morning, there were 584 reported deaths, 11,184 confirmed cases, and 802 people in the hospital.

Notably, the authorities said the previous models were reasonable and based on experiences in Italy and other countries, and that terrifying data can cause people to change their behaviors. Models are designed to plan what could happen. A relevant fact is that about half of COVID-19 deaths in Canada have occurred in long-term care homes.

Source: Sharon Kirkey | National Post