Opinion: We are infectious disease experts. It's time to lift the COVID-19 lockdowns

It is clear that the past two months have shown that with great sacrifices, community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could slow down. And it is that in Canada, we can rightly say that we were able to “flatten the curve” to avoid a scenario in northern Italy or New York City.

However, it needs to be noted that we are now facing unintended consequences as well as delays in healthcare for non-COVID-19 patients, educational impacts, the impending pandemic of mental health issues, and massive economic repercussions. Furthermore, widespread restrictions certainly cannot be maintained until an effective and safe vaccine is widely available, which may not occur for years, if at all. And to be honest, the virus is unlikely to disappear from Canada or the world any time soon.

In the meantime it could be said that the blockade in some part fulfilled its objectives but at the same time it did not.

Advantages and disadvantages

Certainly success in “flattening” the outbreak curve allowed the healthcare system to handle the increase in cases safely and to avoid unnecessary deaths. Despite this, there was no success in protecting the frail elderly population in nursing homes, where approximately 80 percent of Canada’s deaths occurred. And it is necessary to indicate that more than 95 percent of deaths from COVID-19 occurred in people over 60 years of age, compared to none under 20 years of age.

In Canada, the individual death rate from COVID-19 for people younger than 65 is six per million people or 0.0006 percent. This is roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a car accident during the same period of time.

Likewise, it is time to continue launching blocking measures. Remember, the original approach to “flatten the curve” was to relax the constraints if the system was not overwhelmed. That remains the appropriate goal. It is unlikely that zero infections can be achieved for COVID-19, which is primarily spread like the flu or the common cold, even from those without symptoms.

Governments now propose that we analyze and trace all contacts of identified cases of the disease. As we embark on this stage, we will encounter cases that previously would have gone unnoticed. 

Ironically, the better our ability to test and the more we look, the more we will find, making it appear that the disease is getting worse when it is not. This is particularly problematic as restrictions are being lifted.

Source: Neil Rau, Susan Richardson, Martha Fulford and Dominik Mertz | National Post