Democrats on track to take House — but Senate might be out of reach | CBC News

President Donald Trump's Republicans are trailing by a significant margin in the polls and it could cost them control of the House of Representatives. (Andrew Harnik/Associated Press)

It seems that the Democrats and Republicans may be willing to split the control of the two houses of Congress. Likewise, the Democrats are ready to make significant gains in the House of Representatives and win the majority of the 435 seats available, while the Republicans are in a good position to retain control of the Senate.

However, for its part, the Senate may be out of reach for Democrats now, as its performance will still have a significant impact on its chances of winning full control of Congress by 2020.

On the other hand, to gain control of the House of Representatives, Democrats must obtain a net gain of 23 seats. The electoral map for the House is hard for the Democrats. This is partly due to the demographic “classification”: the Democrats are concentrated in the cities, the Republicans in rural and suburban areas, but they are also due to gerrymandering.

Likewise, the last redistricting took place after the United States census in 2010, which turned out to be a very good election year for Republicans. The result was a map stacked against the Democrats.

What do the surveys suggest?

Polls suggest that Democrats have an advantage of around seven to eight percentage points across the country over Republicans.

In such a way that said the result would be so since even the most pessimistic polls give the Democrats an advantage of at least five points, which indicates that even in the worst case, the party could still be able to stop.

Meanwhile, Republicans could win their polls again, or Democrats, emerging from a wave of enthusiasm hinted at fundraising and special elections, could get an even bigger victory than the polls suggest.

Similarly, it should be noted that the polls, fundraising and history point to the progress of Democrats, but a difficult map could keep the Senate in the red.

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Source: Éric Grenier | CBC News