Justin Trudeau seems firm despite the problems that lie ahead

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a year end interview with The Canadian Press on Dec. 14, 2018.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

It seems that Justin Trudeau seems firm and imperturbable despite the fact that problems are brewing everywhere. So it seems that the strategy of the liberal election would be, do nothing and hope that there is no recession. In fact, during the traditional round of end-of-year interviews, Trudeau was very carefree.

Likewise, after these interviews, I am left with the impression of a prime minister and a government that saw no reason for any major correction in the course. At some point it is understandable and it is true that liberals are performing surprisingly weakly in the polls, given the state of the economy. Despite this, the party could be forgiven for believing that the Trudeau, now experienced, will beat the conservative Andrew Scheer in the campaign.

Questions that arise

Of course, all the above mentioned brings with it certain questions, as well as what happens if the economy is not as strong as all that, at the time of the elections? In the same way that liberal fiscal policy is essentially based on the abolition of the economic cycle, the strategy of the liberal election should be reduced to this: stay still and hope that there is no recession.

Possibly that is all they could do. It must be clarified that the economy is not the only factor that could significantly influence elections. But, even so, it is quite decisive. Likewise, ruling parties sometimes manage to lose even when the economy is expanding, but almost never win when they contract. And the risk factors for a recession, 10 years after the last, are building up, as stock markets have been pointing out for months. An example of this is the S & P 500 since it has fallen 13 percent since September.

It should be noted that the United States remains the main source of concern. For its part, the government of the United States now addresses deficits in the range of five percent of GDP. Even with unemployment below four percent.

Added to this, we must bring up the continuing threat of a trade war between the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China. Previously it was thought that the greatest threat to the Canadian economy, and Trudeau’s chances of re-election, was the abrogation of NAFTA in the United States. Even so, that possibility has not completely receded.

Source: Andrew Coyne | National Post