We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

ILLUSTRATION: MARTIN KOZLOWSKI

 

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news. In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus.

Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected.

At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life. Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms.

Covid-19 deaths in the U. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. population has had the infection. In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data.

The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing.

But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity. Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

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Source: Marty Makary | WSJ